India will receive normal to above normal rainfall which will be spatially well-distributed over the country during the upcoming Southwest monsoon season, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said on Tuesday. He was speaking during the release of the second stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the Southwest monsoon this year.
The monsoon onset over Kerala is most likely to occur on Thursday.
The IMD upgraded the country’s seasonal rainfall to 101 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) which is 88 cm (1961 – 2010). In its first stage LRF released in early April, the All India seasonal rainfall was predicted to be 98 per cent of the LPA.
The country receives over 70 per cent rainfall during June to September and is vital for the Kharif and overall agriculture-based activities.
“There will be normal to above normal rainfall over the northwest, central and south peninsular India. Whereas, east and northeast India will experience below normal rainfall during June to September this year,” said Mohapatra.
For the first time, the IMD issued a special forecast for the Monsoon Core Zone — spanning most of the central India regions between Odisha and Gujarat.
“This rain-fed region will receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, with a possibility of over 106 per cent of LPA,” added Mohapatra.
Each homogeneous region in the country has its own seasonal rainfall in accordance with the LPA. This year, the region-wise seasonal rain forecast is Northwest India (92 to 108 per cent of the LPA), Central India (94 to 106 per cent per cent of the LPA), South Peninsula (93 to 107 per cent of the LPA) and Northeast (below 95 per cent of LPA).
Below normal rainfall is expected over east Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh along with some interior regions of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and southern Maharashtra.
At present, there are neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevailing over the Pacific Ocean. ENSO is one of the many dominating ocean factors that influence the Indian summer monsoon.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another key factor playing a significant role in the monsoon, will be in its negative phase till October.
” A negative IOD is normally not favourable for the monsoon, but it is not the only factor controlling the monsoon,” the IMD chief said.
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