Northeast News – Why monsoon is expected to pick up in July

by Guwahati_City


The all-India June rainfall this year was 152.3 mm against an average of 165.3 mm (based on 1971-2020 data). This is a deficit of 8 per cent and classified as normal rainfall (deviation within 10 per cent).

The monsoon has, however, picked up this month. July is expected to bring widespread rainfall over various parts of the country.

June, in general

June accounts for 15 per cent of the season’s rainfall. As the first month of the southwest monsoon, it is usually marked by large-scale rainfall variations. This is mainly because the monsoon currents are getting established as the monsoon makes gradual progress over various regions of the country.

Normally, variations are high during the monsoon onset and withdrawal months, June and September respectively, said Dr D Sivananda Pai, senior forecaster and director at the Institute for Climate Change Studies, Kerala.

In the last 20 years, 11 years have seen a rainfall deficit in June. The last time this happened was in 2019.

June, this season

The region-wise deficiency last month was significant over Central India (–30 per cent, rainfall 118.9 mm) and South Peninsular India (deficit of –14 per cent, rainfall 139 mm). In Northwest India (–12 per cent), the deficit is considered insignificant as the monsoon did not mark its onset in June. East and Northeast India had a 22 per cent surplus, mainly due to rainfall during June 16-22.

Although the monsoon marked its onset over Kerala on May 29, three days ahead of normal schedule, the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon remained weak. Thus, it did not make expected progress between May 31 and June 9.

Lack of rainfall started reflecting over Kerala, Karnataka and even over Maharashtra, where the onset was announced on June 10. The Bay of Bengal branch, on the other hand, made progress up to the Northeast by early June.

“Towards the end of June, the east-west advance of the monsoon over the plains of North India and the Himalayan foothills was both rapid and smooth,” said Medha Khole, Scientist F at India Meteorological Department, Pune.

During June, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) — the rain-bearing, eastwards propagating intraseasonal circulation over the tropical atmosphere — remained out of phase and did not bring much rainfall over India.

Also, an active rainfall spell over western Pacific regions (eastern China) was driving away moisture from the Indian region. This is known as the Mei Yu Front. “There is an inverse relation. If there is heavy rainfall over northeast China, then there is less rainfall over India,” said Dr Pai.

Expectations in July

July accounts for 35 per cent of southwest monsoon rainfall. With large-scale regional deficits in June, the rainfall during July will be crucial for taking up pending kharif sowing activities.

On all days since June 30, the all-India daily rainfall has remained above normal. For comparison, just nine rain-surplus days were recorded across June. From –8 per cent on June 30, the all-India seasonal rainfall deficit improved to –2 per cent on July 5. The all-India rainfall has risen to 200.8 mm for the season. The number of rainfall-deficit states fell from 18 to 9 between June 30 and July 5.

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon, for the first time in this season, is in its active phase and will bring widespread rainfall over the entire country except the Northeast, West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand. The monsoon will remain for active at least a week to ten days, the IMD officials expect. This will mainly be due to rainfall associated with a low pressure system (the season’s second) prevailing over north Odisha and south Jharkhand.

In addition, there will be strong and moist westerly winds blowing from the Arabian Sea, causing widespread rainfall and isolated heavy spells along the west coast, importantly Konkan and Goa, until July 8.

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